I must confess, I have been ridiculously wrong lately...

Ugh. Being wrong sucks. It's happens just often enough to make you feel dumb and humbled or dumbled.  I've been trading for 7 years and I know a thing or two about a thing or two. The very first stock I bought in 05' was Valero. I let it run till late 06' and got paid big time. It was nice being right, but I was lucky too, I sold near the top. Don't ask me how I did it, cause I couldn't tell you, but I did it. Even as a beginner I knew to take profit. So what did I do wrong? How did I get in such a jam on Apple...


1. I did not adapt -why did I refuse to change? I was like an old grandpa screaming at the kids for playing that terrible rock n roll music too loud. I couldn't join the hip crowd because I was OLD and ANGRY and didn't want to hear any of it. Everyone who didn't agree with me was either STUPID or CRAZY and that was that! If the industry is tech gadgets and the pace is pretty fast am I up to speed? Have I tried the Galaxy? the Nexus? All the apps? Not hip at all.

Now I have so much egg on my face you could make an omelette.

2. I was not patient - this has FOMO (fear of missing out) written all over it. Patience is key in times like these, so hang tight, distract yourself and go play Canasta or something. Trading political headlines sucks and so does government squabbles. If there's ever any deadline for anything - politicians will wait up until the last second before they defuse the bomb. It's so cliche, like, spare us the drama.

Betting on Washington to arrive early? Not a good bet.


3. I wanted revenge. Basically I became a stalker (stocker?) with a stock that just wanted to be left alone. I called too much. I cheered on every half-hearted attempt at a make-up rally. I sent nasty texts berating her when it failed. I cried. I drank. I cried and drank and drank and cried all while I looked at old pictures of her charts. Like a broken relationship, when the good ol' days are gone they don't come back. Had I just let her go ohhhhhhh I could of avoided all this pain and embarrassment. Oh well. It's better to have profited and lost than to have never profited at all. Conclusion?

Don't be a stocker. All healthy relationships need room to breathe.

4. I ignored reality. I was in a burning building with fire all around me and I'm jumping up and down pointing at a part of the house that's not on fire yet. In other words, I had dangerous amounts of tunnel vision. I was as stubborn in my beliefs as a religious nut, and like a religious nut, I changed my perception of reality to fit my views. That's what I did and I'm ashamed yet humbled or - ashumbled.

The Future: And other things later than now.


Where will Apple go? Will it hold this support level at 525? Is 525 a good price to buy? Will it bounce? Will it crash some more???


 I don't know. Who cares. When she wants to come back, she will.

P.S

Hurry up though, I miss you.

XOXOX

R

Commuter tutor

  When I lived in LA, I lived in the Valley but worked in Santa Clarita. My commute was miserable and I was ill prepared for such a mind numbing experience. My longest commute until then was 10 minutes.  I graduated from Commuter U, on the typical freeway in the stereotypical rat race city - LA. The 405 stole some crazy hours from life - but I paid my dues. And now its paying off. What could be the typical 40 minute commute, I'm shaving down to 25 minutes from my 405 training.

    No longer in LA, I find myself in a new commuter trap - the 95N /I15 combo in Vegas. Best described as a bunch of grouchy ants squeezing through one giant bottleneck before they've had their morning coffee.

   I hit the road at 7am - along with all the other rats and I don't make many friends on the way. I attempt to take the freeway - and if it's jammed up too bad my favorite move is to cut exit lane lines by driving next to the exit lane - then at the last SECOND wait for someone to snooze and BAM! jump in place. It does not help if you drive a Beamer or a Mercedes - the assholishness is multiplied. But it saves a buttload of time and to deflect criticism just wave your arms around and pretend like YOU'RE the one who's mad.

   Exit lanes can serve a useful purpose when you're trying to stay on the freeway as well. Sometimes they can be completely open while the freeway is at a dead stop. Just drive on them like regular lanes - going slow enough to jump over when you need to. The exit lanes usually are free until the obvious transition off the freeway. Before that transition you have a good mile to skip the losers. Works like a charm.

   When I find myself making a left turn and waiting in line, I always find the same thing. One left hand turn lane has 9 cars waiting in it and the other has one. My favorite thing to do in this situation is enter the lane with one car - (usually the inside lane) and wait for the light to turn green, make my turn and abruptly switch lanes and laugh. Sheep.

    The morning commute - needs music. It helps set the mood for the drive. Seriously, every time I got jammed up commuting on the 405  - "Welcome to the Jungle" played on the radio. It made me feel better. I usually save the hard stuff for the ride home - in the morning I like my music like baby food,  soft and easy. Not in a hurry - just gonna glide along.

Here's some tips I've accumulated over the years.
 
1. In a sketchy neighborhood stopped at a red light, turn on some mexican radio (loud) and lean your seat back. Anyone willing to listen to that kind of music very loud must be crazy. Sounds like polka, I know, but it intimidates your would be assailants.

2. Alternate routes - I live by this one. If I notice traffic, I have other routes in place at all junctions. An object in motion tends to stay in motion, as long as you know your last chance exits.

3. Do not hurry to work - only hurry home. I read that advice somewhere and put into place and it's the greatest thing ever. Think about it - where would you rather be? Lay off the pedal going to work - totally not worth it. Speeding home to catch a nap? Totally worth it.

4. Use the finger if you have to - too many bad drivers go unchecked. I believe said drivers improve over time after they see how many people they piss off. You are being an enabler by not flipping them the bird so feel free to do so. And it's the best feeling in the world, knowing someone saw your finger as you drive off into the sunset. Ahhh such bliss.

5. It's ok to speed sometimes. If you're going from LA to Vegas and you want to beat your buddies record of 2 hours and forty five minutes, by all means - game on. Going 85 in a 70 on the way to work? Game off nerdbucket.

6. Use your blinkers. This will alert other drivers to speed up and hurry past you so you can make into the lane you need to get into. Drivers have a funny way of hanging back and blocking your lane only until they see your blinker. Then they speed like hell to make sure they don't get stuck behind you.

Good luck getting to where ya gotta go.

Predictions, Premonitions and Performance - The White Rhino

                                                                           

     Sprint Aug 3.50's were sitting perfectly still in the savanna, completely camouflaged in the chest high fields of low probability calls. I looked all around - not a soul in sight. No bullish analyst, no other hunters on any feeds or streams looking at it - it was exactly where I wanted it @ .11 - a price so low, I could guarantee a trophy. I have successfully targeted and executed the white rhino before and now I will journal my adventures.....

    The  "white rhino" is a rare, hard charging, momentary window of massively huge profits from a swing trade. 10x or more........and the only way to get the 10x or more is to do everything perfectly. Buy side and sell side. First,  front run the trade before the charts signal buy. Next, be a buy side sniper and only fire when you can execute the perfect rock-bottom kill shot. Once you're certain you have your bottom price in your scopes....BOOM!!!!  You fire away. Now you've purchased a ridiculously cheap out of the money call that nobody in the world thinks will ever do anything but expire worthless....congrats.
   Now part 2 - patience and discipline - so you wait. Then you wait some more....and then some more....and then it finally shows signs of life. You feel alive. Your baby has crawled up to a double. Most likely it corrects. Doubt sinks in. Hunters are catching trades all around you and you're stuck in a round-trip ticket. Waiting game still. A watched pot never boils. You distract yourself. It triples. You want to sell so bad your stomach hurts. Not this time. 100% of my contracts to the limit.. - we are hunting for the white rhino. Now it's up to 5x. Ok do you let some go? Hell no. Halfway there. The leap from 5x to 10x is the final "rhino charge"...this is the part where you imagine a hard chargin rhino taking a beeline towards you and if you even flinch for a second you miss your mark. The rhino charge is the mind bending sweet zenith of price action and the ephemeral moment of unbridled success. Only a steely-eyed grizzled option's veteran can fly this close to the sun and still parachute down to safety. I hunt the white rhino successfully. I've likened this hunt to my childhood when I used to catch dragonflys. This amazingly beautiful delicate flying creature can only be caught before lift off.

Time stamped on aug 13 -

The DCA working again!!! January 2012 first noticed it with NFLX and VLO. Both worked. presented itself in July and August with S, X, and KKD  - TGB was time stamped at 2.6 (where the A is on the chart) copper is bottoming and due for a pop with GLD. TGB is cheap historically. When I first followed this in 2005 it was at this price...2.50-70 ish.

    This is a crystal ball chart. Fill in a few brush strokes and it's easier to trade cause you'll know if you're wrong really quick. A spine is a terrible thing to waste. Strong pattern to break w/out news or some fundamental change. I watched Netflix and Chipotle spine for a long time and then they snapped hard. Spines have a hard time of shaking out longs, there's not much flexibility in the pattern. So most of it is spike and consolidate. When its something else beside that it's pretty obvious and could be a signal the end is near. My premonition is spine intact, onward and upward to 800 where it can correct harder into the low 700's... or possibly high 500's if the economy turns sour, I would like to revisit this chart and see how a broken spine trades.
     I read in a blog that the 13 sma was a great place to buy dips for a bullish Apple and last Fri the 13 sma was 657. I felt confident and bought on the next candlestick after the engulfing reversal. Now I need some follow through but the price of 3.25 for Sept 700 calls might be a bit high if next week starts off slow.

KKD could be my next white rhino - Nov 7.50's at .20 was when I knew I found one - took it to step 2 with the buy at rock bottom.  if at 9.50 by NOV that should be around the 2.00 mark for 10x...I think this is a baby rhino and I sold at .5 - at this point I just want to see if this fit the perfect criteria for a 10x and I just found myself impatient and rationalizing it with booking profits.

So now I have to look for the next white rhino and I believe it to be KCG's JAN 4's  .05 range = sniper shot and you shoot for the moon and hold on for the rhino charge...currently it's bid is at .10 and ask .15

I don't want to be a perfectionist on the KCG trade so I did pick some up at .15....still a good price, if it does drop to .05 ill be convinced this is a real 10x or more with the right sell side timing.

Some trades that didnt pan out well in august were X (US steel) having no follow through even after the DCA chart worked for it. An insider buy made me think it could continue to run but it sold off hard and I changed my mind after I saw these awesomely huge bearish bets on the Sept and Oct 20 puts for almost three days in a row and when I looked at the chart from that huge bet's perspective it made total sense! The pivot point would fail - the run was too much, too fast ,with little news and no fundamental support. My gut told me if this was a hedge those puts would be farther out then 1 month and then I knew X was going to fall for sure. Should have logged this whole event in a journal. Sprint was so awesome, now KKD and TGB looking the same I have to log this stuff in. In January I hit NFLX and TSL and VLO and now the blinders are off. Finally after 7 years...realized if I could just sit and lie in wait, the dragon fly would perch itself right in front of me.

BTW - the Sprint Aug 3.50's expired at 2.00 ;)

Parthenon and on and on...

"This is the year to come out of recent hiding, Aquarius. Your standing in the world takes on great importance, especially during the latter half of the year. It's time to come out of humble reclusion, and let yourself shine!"

My horoscope for 2012 is telling me to get out of hiding and I couldn't agree more. 2011 felt like a stalemate. 2012 is the year ideas come out of my brain and into this world. I had to go herman's hermit for the second half of last year cause I needed to re-calibrate my mind. Every now and then you have to unplug yourself for awhile till you get back on track. In ancient times when a man was disturbed or feeling out of whack he would isolate himself from the village and live in a cave out in the wild until he felt better. These days men do the same thing, except now these caves are called studio apartments.

Living in a studio apartment is an exercise of will and determination. You might be determined to save money, but your willpower to sacrifice space for dollars can only last so long. The weirdest thing about living in a studio is having people over. When you only have one room, its a bit strange to have a guest see all your belongings all at once. "Welcome to my humble abode. Here's is everything I own, let us sit among it and discuss." I guess I took for granted using a living room as a buffer zone between your bedroom belongings and other stuff. Also the bathroom or kitchen smells can overpower the whole house. Combine that with guests and you have some precious awkward moments. Also whenever I showered my entire apartment went damp. Seriously it felt like a rain forest in there.

Studio Apts < other places to live

My living in a studio apartment experiment has come to an end but I have relearned one thing. People need space.


I now consider myself a drifter. It is difficult to explain my migrations all over the west coast but one thing is for sure, I was getting my Lewis and Clark on. I have packed up my little car with everything I own and hit the horizon a few times and I see why a drifter has gotta drift...too many people asking too many questions. Like... When are you going to get a job? Or...What are you doing here? and my personal fav...Where are your pants???

I am not excited for 2012... but I would concede to a cautious optimism.

Random video of the day...Get your Parthenon on cause 2012 is the year for big ideas...